Sandbagger Prevention League Results and Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie: managing the Sandbagger Prevention League was a lot more time consuming than I anticipated. I was basically managing seven leagues all at the same time and these silly things called work and life kept getting in the way. But I finally have results for our 27 week season. Thanks again to all that participated.

The final scratch averages were as follows, with Sam as our simulated sandbagger:

Matt 1	219
Matt 2	213
Matt 3	205
Zach	200
EBH	174
Sam	173
Doc	157
Lauren	112

The goal of the SPL was to identify a league in which good bowlers were rewarded, sandbagging was not beneficial, and not so good bowlers were kept in competition so they would be driven to get better.  As a baseline our eight bowlers participated in a scratch league with predictable results as follows:

Matt 1	105
Matt 2	102
Matt 3	96
Zach	84
Sam	61
EBH	57
Doc	32
Lauren	3

The scratch league results are nearly identical to the list of averages. Sam and EBH swapped spots, but their averages are only a pin off so I think that is negligible. While sandbagging is clearly not beneficial in a scratch league, we also see that poor bowlers are kept well out of competition with everyone else. Scratch leagues are great for advanced bowlers or groups at a similar skill level, but they are not for an all-inclusive league.

Using the same scratch scores I broke our bowlers down into two divisions based on average. Sam and EBH dominated their division and Matt 1 and Matt 2 ran away with theirs. Two rounds of divisional brackets were used to determine the division champions. The winner of each division then bowled head to head to crown a league champion, with the championship match being 100% handicap based on the higher average of the two bowlers. EBH defeated Matt 1 for the league title.

Another scratch divisional league awarded 1-4 points based on how the bowler’s series ranked within their division in addition to one point being awarded for each game won in head to head play. I didn’t use the brackets to determine the division champions this time and so the bowler with the most points in each division squared off for the league title: Sam and Matt 1. This time the better bowler prevailed and Matt 1 was the league champion.

Competition was pretty good within the divisions, especially the top tier division with the three Matts and me. Only 19 pins separated the best and worst averages and most matches were pretty close. The lower division had a greater disparity between the best and worst averages and the standings were not as close as a result.

Next I tested the traditional 100% handicap league with the following results:

Matt 1	90
Matt 2	88
Lauren	75
Matt 3	71
Sam	68
Zach	65.5
EBH	54
Doc	32.5

The best bowlers came in first and second, but the worst bowler finished third. A skilled sandbagger could also take advantage of this league to climb the standings. These results are not overly shocking because the better bowlers averaged so much higher than the worse ones and so the large skill difference negated the benefit of the handicap. I am also not a skilled sandbagger and had a difficult time plotting Sam’s results to cheat the system.

Another 100% handicap league assigned one point per game won in head to head competition, but then also awarded 1-8 points based on how the bowler’s series ranked that week. Using the same games with this small scoring change resulted in the following standings:

Matt 1	210
Matt 2	207
Zach	174.5
Sam	174
Matt 3	168
Lauren	149
EBH	125
Doc	103.5

The mid-level bowlers were particularly punished here because they lacked the benefit of a high skill level and a high handicap; though, competition between bowlers of comparable skill was much better. A combination of awarding points based on how a series ranks each week and the division format could render a pretty competitive league.

The same two league styles were also used in an 80% handicap based system to see if a lower handicap would alter the results. The regular league results were as follows:

Matt 1	96.5
Matt 2	95
Matt 3	75
Sam	70
Zach	67
Lauren	50
EBH	49.5
Doc	39

And the league that awarded 1-8 points based on series resulted in the following:

Matt 1	225.5
Matt 2	223
Zach	185
Matt 3	181
Sam	165
EBH	129.5
Doc	100
Lauren	93

The straight 80% and 100% handicap league kept the closest competition with 57.5 points separating the first and last place bowlers. While the scratch league results came the closest to reflecting the bowlers’ skill levels, the 80% handicap league that awarded series points also came pretty close.

The Takeaway

There is really no way for a bowling league to fairly compensate for a 100+ pin difference in average between bowlers.  As a scratch league the lower average bowlers are more likely to feel that they can never catch up to the high average bowlers, probably resulting in them quitting instead of using it as motivation to get better.  In a handicap league the better bowlers are essentially punished for their skill and mid-level bowlers become fodder for those with high averages and high handicaps. When you factor in prizes for winning the league, most improved average, etc., the temptation for sandbagging is pretty strong. I know, no groundbreaking results here.

The divisions within a scratch league idea did work out pretty well, though. When bowlers averaged within 20 pins of each other their point totals stayed close while still reflecting the bowlers’ skill levels. The ability to advance to a higher division could serve the motivator role without being too overwhelming. If payouts are kept within divisions they will be a bit smaller which in turn could further discourage sandbagging. This could be tweaked to work at the individual and team levels.

Now there seems to be a growing divide among bowlers, at least if you can trust those on Facebook groups as a representative sample. I’ve seen many conversations where good bowlers belittle the accomplishments of others in house leagues, essentially stating that it isn’t real bowling since the ball does most of the work. I disagree to an extent, the ball doesn’t throw itself down the lane, but there is most definitely a difference between accomplishments on a THP and sport patterns.

I think there is a great desire for bowlers to try out the sport patterns, but the USBC and local centers do not make them easy to come by (at least not in Pittsburgh). A drive needs to be made to make USBC sanctioned sport leagues the norm in league bowling. This gives good bowlers the motivation they need to get even better and provides practical experience for tournaments. House leagues still have their place at the junior level and in beginner leagues since they are a great way to learn bowling basics. Much like junior bowling, I think the introduction of coaches at beginner leagues for those that wish to utilize them would also help push new bowlers to improve. The scheduling of coaches could be the responsibility of the local USBC chapters and could also help promote the various coach certifications.

As it stands there is no set milestone in place, other than honor scores, to entice the majority of bowlers to improve. If they do not set personal goals then they are perfectly content showing up every week to go through the motions. If the USBC can include minor ways to reward good bowling, like becoming eligible to move into a higher tier league (i.e. graduating from a THP beginner league to a sport league) then perhaps the talent pool will improve so that handicaps are no longer required to “level the playing field,” effectively eliminating the sandbagger to a dark place in bowling’s history.

SPL: The First 10 Weeks

The league season is a quarter of the way over already, so its time to check on the status of the great experiment we call the Sandbagger Prevention League. Thanks to the contributions of some dedicated readers I have tabulated the first 10 weeks' results and can offer the following observations for each league format.

Scratch & Divisions

So far the standings are about as expected, with the best bowlers earning the most points. There really isn't much to report here, and since the Scratch format is serving as our control group or baseline, no news is good news. Matt 1 and his 213 average leads the way as expected and Lauren has yet to earn a point with a 110 average. While the scratch format best reflects bowling ability, it is not welcoming to new participants.

Since the two division formats depend on scratch scores, their standings also reflect the bowlers' performance. Because the difference between the lowest Division A average and the highest Division B average is 15 pins it seems that the divisions will stay the same throughout the entire season even though they are reset at the beginning of each quarter. Matt 1 leads Division A and EBH leads Division B with Sam Sandbagger closing in. So far the standings do not reflect the kind of close competition I had hoped, but we still have over 20 weeks to go.

100% Handicap

This is the format used to determine the scores for Sam Sandbagger each week. His scores are higher when he bowls better bowlers and lower when he bowls against lower average opponents. Sam took a beating the first few weeks because he had to establish a low average and, consequently, a higher handicap.  After three weeks Sam began to bowl scores closer to his opponent's average, thus giving him a better chance to earn points.

Sam's sandbagging technique has put him at the top of the standings in head to head match-ups. Sam also leads the standings in a 100% handicap format in which bowlers are given 1-8 points depending on how their handicap series ranks within the entire league, despite the fact that he doesn't necessarily throw high scores each week to defeat his opponent.

As expected, this format shows how easy it is for an experienced bowler to manipulate his scores and take advantage of a high handicap to defeat opponents of all skill levels.

80% Handicap

This is the wildcard format, I wasn't really sure what to expect. It still uses a handicap system to even the odds, but the benefit is limited. So far Matt 1 is leading the way in the standings, but Sam is not too far behind him. After 10 weeks this seems to be the more competitive league, but only time will tell. Lower average bowlers are still in the running for a high finish, but the top spot isn't just given to them.

Expectations

I expect the standings to really take shape in the middle third of the season and more closely resemble what the final standings will be. Sam will need to finesse his scores efficiently so that his average doesn't climb too high and ruin his handicap. It has been a challenge to get into the mind of a sandbagger so I'll need to keep on my toes, I guess I'm just too honest.

Hopefully this whole venture isn't for nothing, but we'll see what the standings show in the spring.

Week 13 Recap

Game 1: 206
Game 2: 161
Game 3: 248
Series: 615
Week Avg: 205
Season Avg: 194

First off, I finally got around to updating the SPL page with three weeks worth of results. I plan on analyzing the data thus far and writing a post sometime in the near future.

I felt pretty good heading into league this week, perhaps it could be attributed to taking Monday off to recover from the holiday house guests. Since I had the realization a few weeks ago that I needed to make an effort to stay upright at the point of release I have been throwing more consistently and accurately. My hope is that after a few weeks of making a conscious effort to stay upright eventually muscle memory will be retrained and I will continue to do so automatically.

The first game was a fairly uneventful, I believe clean, affair. I was in the pocket every shot and my leaves were mainly corner pins as I fine tuned my line. I really like how the Python has been reacting lately and it has resulted in more strikes. Even though I was striking this game, I didn't group them together enough for a big score and I finished with a 206.

In the second game I threw all strikes on the right lane, but the left lane started to give me problems. I rushed an early shot and left a 3-6-10, which I chopped for an open.  Two frames later another bad ball left the 2-4-5 that I also chopped. When I threw well on the left lane I came in high so I adjusted by moving a few inches up on the approach.  I left a 10-pin late in the eighth frame and during the spare attempt my ball hit some dead wood in the gutter. Even though I'm pretty sure the ball was going to hang on and convert the spare anyway, because I hit the pin in the gutter the spare was negated.  I will not make the mistake of leaving dead wood ever again. I spared in the tenth frame on the left lane, but was still coming in high.  I decided that to start the last game I would move a half board left and swing the ball out a bit into the pocket. I finished the second game with a 161.

The third game started with a pocket 5-7 split. I'm still not really sure how either pin was left standing, as both were wobbling pretty bad when the rack came down. I converted a 10-pin in the second frame and then threw four strikes in a row. The next frame was a lighter pocket hit and I left another 10-pin to break up the streak, but was able to strike the last five in a row to finish with a 248 game and third straight 600 series (fourth if you count the charity tournament).

As a team we only took 2 of 7 points from a team that was well below us in the standings. Three of us were well below average the second game and we lost by nearly 100 pins. Hopefully the three teams above us had an off night so we won't lose any momentum.

While it seems that many of the problems that plagued my game have been corrected, the one that is still haunting me is the ability to transition with the lanes. I average nearly 30 pins more in my third game than I do the second, which is unacceptable. This week was particularly rough because I anticipated the change, but made the wrong adjustment for about three frames before realizing my mistake. I second guessed myself initially, with my instinct telling me to move left first but then opting to move up instead. It all goes back to trusting myself. I know how to play the game, I just need to do it.

On the plus side, the past few weeks have shown me that I am getting more comfortable in stringing strikes together.  Last week could have just as easily seen me throw 11 in a row if it weren't for the 8-10 split. This week's slightly light pocket 10-pin could have been 10 in a row. The weak knees and butterflies in my stomach don't appear as quickly as they once did. My confidence is beginning to build and if I can start a game off strong who knows what can happen.

What I do know is that lately Monday nights can't get here fast enough.

Week 12 Recap

Game 1: 166
Game 2: 214
Game 3: 256
Series: 636
Week Avg: 212
Season Avg: 193

First, I wanted to apologize for not updating the SPL page in a while.  We'll be hosting Thanksgiving at my house and so I've been trying to get some cleaning and things done before our families come over Wednesday night. Hopefully I will have a few weeks' worth of updates on the page after this weekend followed by a recap of the first quarter of the SPL.

Secondly, the charity bowling tournament went really well on Sunday.  There were at least 40 bowlers, in addition to a 50/50 and Chinese auction, which all raised money for my teammate's co-worker who is currently battling cancer. I bowled pretty well, scoring a 213, 183, and 215 for the day. During the first game I played a little further left than usual, creating a bigger arch into the pocket. After the first game I lost that line and went to my typical line of standing at the 25 board and throwing at the 8. My teammate, his aunt and I were the only league bowlers there and we swept the awards with ease. I took home top series honors by about 150 pins.

Now, onto my league recap. I decided to start the night with the Python rather than the C-System since it has been performing really well lately. One of our bowlers had pre-bowled and another was a no show so we knew it would be a quick night.  After practice we found out that four of the opposing team's members had also rolled off and their fifth bowler never showed, so there were only three of us on our pair.  As my wife remarked, it felt like we were the ones doing the pre-bowling. That worked for me, I usually do better in that situation any way.

Everything looked great in practice, but the first few frames of the first game were disastrous. I had a couple of spares and a couple of opens to start the evening. I kept missing my mark and realized about halfway through the game that I was dropping my right shoulder. Once I made a conscious effort to stay upright at the foul line everything came together. I finished the game with a 166 and barely squeaked out a win for the team.

The second game started much better than the first. I was striking regularly, but a few mistakes caused me to leave a 3-10 split and I opened on a 3-6-10. I was not making very good decisions on how to play multi-pin leaves. I threw four in a row late in the game and finished out with a spare and a strike in the tenth for a 214 and another big win for the team.

The last game was glorious, but also a case of "what might have been." My first ball fell off my hand early and left the 1-2-4-7, which I converted. I doubled and then left my buddy the 8-10 split on a solid pocket shot for an open.  I adjusted a few inches up on the approach for that lane only and made no adjustments on the other lane, remembering my misstep from last week. The last eight balls were strikes. No iffy strikes either, these were beautiful. It was a ten strike 256 game, probably the most strikes I've ever thrown in one game and a tie for my personal record for the most strikes in a row in one game. The team swept the night and continues its way up the standings.

I wish I could have kept going to see if I could have thrown four more strikes. This was the best I have ever felt bowling. Everything felt easy. The ball came off my hand perfectly, generating a little more revs than usual for me. My form was above average for me, as I held my position at the foul line after releasing the ball more often than not. I don't know how I looked up there, but I felt like a pro that last game. And it felt good.

As I mentioned, my spare shooting was less than stellar.  In addition to the 8-10, 3-10 and 2-7 splits I left, I chopped a 3-6-10, 2-4-5 and 6-9 and outright missed an 8-pin. I've been perfect on 10-pins lately though, which has been a huge help.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving, everyone. May your turkeys be plentiful, both on the table and on the lanes.

Some Updates

Well I had my surgery on Friday morning and things went a little differently than expected. The plan was to make one small incision in my belly button to remove my gall bladder using a robot for most of the work. Apparently my gall bladder was a bit inflamed and they couldn't even get to it using the robot and one incision. They made two additional cuts, one about 6 inches above my belly button and another about three inches right of that, as well as a small hole about 8 inches to the right of my belly button to drain additional fluid from the surgery. Needless to say I am more sore than I expected to be and have some concern about how quickly I will be able to get back to bowling shape. I see the doctor for a follow up next Monday and we'll take it from there, but my plan is still to be back in action on October 1st.  It sounds like I did get lucky though, the doctor said they were a few minutes away from opening my entire abdomen to get to the gall bladder. I imagine recovery would have been considerably longer then.

In happier news, the Sandbagger Prevention League is getting some positive reviews just one week in. Jef who runs the About.com Bowling Blog gave it a mention in a recent post. I knew this would be a different and challenging experiment, but the pressure is on for me to do this right and present accurate results for any interested parties. If we can reach significant findings and conclusions, I will send along a report and a copy of our results to the USBC with a recommendation on how to clean up league bowling while still making it appealing to the masses.

Thanks to all for your support in both of the above mentioned topics and good luck on the lanes.

Starting the Sandbagger Prevention League

The beginning of the fall league season is upon us, and with the start of our real leagues comes the start of the experimental, quasi-fictional, Sandbagger Prevention League.

I outlined the concept for the league in a previous post, so I won't repeat myself here.  In addition, I have created an entire page dedicated to tracking the progress of the league throughout the season (see the SPL link at the top?) and explaining the various formats being tested.

Joining me and my fictional, unethical bowler Sam Sandbagger, are: Lauren (my wife), Doc, EBH of Thumbhole Chronicles, and, of coarse, my buddy Matt at Bowling Rollercoaster, who is contributing scores from all three of his leagues for this project.I couldn't do this without you guys and I hope we get some real results when the league wraps up.

The league will run for 32 weeks and if any of the participants are in leagues shorter than that I know they practice enough to cover the extra weeks. They will submit their scores in the comments section of the SPL page by listing the week number and their three games.  In Matt's case, he'll need to specify to which Matt the scores belong (Matt 1, 2, or 3).  If they maintain a public score sheet, like Bowling Tracker, I can use that instead.

The most difficult part of creating this league was trying to get inside the head of a sandbagger. I've grappled for a few weeks on how to develop a sandbagger's strategy. What should the scores be early in the season?When should Sam start bowling well? How blatant is a sandbagger when throwing under their real average? How bad is too bad for a sandbagger?

Sam is going to be a conscientious sandbagger, never totally tanking a game but only bowling to his full potential when he has to. Sam is a 200 average bowler; however, at the start of the season he is going to throw around 150. He'll bowl better when facing opponents with higher averages to take advantage of his higher handicap and he'll bowl closer to his lower average against opponents with lower averages. I will create Sam's scores based on his opponent's average before they submit their scores, so I will have no influence on Sam's performance.

If any one has any questions about the league please let me know in the comments.  Otherwise, the first set of scores will be rolled this Friday and the league will be underway.

Thanks again for all of your help

The Sandbagger Prevention League

There has been a lot of talk in the bowling blogosphere (yes, one actually exists) recently about whether handicap leagues are ruining the sport, specifically by serving as an invitation for better bowlers to partake in sandbagging. Sandbagging is when a bowler purposefully bowls below their ability early in the season to establish a lower average, and thus higher handicap, in that league. At a certain point in the season or against particularly good opponents, that bowler will then begin to bowl to the best of their ability to create extraordinarily high games, when combined with their handicap, and collect wins; however, since their average had initially been so low, it will take longer for the sandbagger’s average to reach anywhere close to their actual ability.

So how can bowling as a sport discourage sandbagging? Do away with handicap leagues and force all bowlers to get better? Banish those caught sandbagging from sanctioned leagues? Place a limit on the amount of pins one bowler is permitted in handicap? I am interested in hearing any and all ideas, and here’s why:

I'd like to conduct an experiment. I want to create a league in which we can test the various proposals to discourage sandbagging, but I’ll need your help. I am looking for bowlers willing to submit scores from one of their leagues each week as a contribution to the Sandbagger Prevention League (SPL). The SPL will be comprised of all readers that wish to volunteer, ideally an odd number of at least 7 real bowlers, as well as a fake bowler, Sam Sandbagger. Each week you would be matched up head to head with a different bowler in the league. If I cannot find enough people and someone bowls in multiple leagues I can use your scores from each league, but you will have to bowl against yourself some weeks (did I just blow your mind?). Most often you are bowling against a real person, but occasionally you will be matched up against Sam Sandbagger. Sam will start the season off bowling below his usual average (I will choose this average once I have a list of averages for all participants), but as the league goes on Sam will bowl better. Sam will also bowl over average when he is competing against members with higher averages. I will determine Sam’s scores for the week based on his opponent’s average before receiving the scores of his opponent, so you will have the same chance of defeating Sam as you would if he were actually bowling with you. Bowlers will receive one point for each game they win against that week’s opponent and earn two points by having the higher series.

The SPL will simultaneously run in varying formats. Each week I will calculate the standings as a scratch league, 100% handicap league, 80% handicap league and any possible solutions to solving the sandbagger phenomenon that we can think of, such as dividing the league into two divisions based on average and resetting the divisions at the halfway point. That means that a different bowler could win the league in each format tested. Once the league is over, I will analyze each format to see what type of impact they had on Sam Sandbagger, how competitive they were, and whether or not actual bowling ability is reflected in the final standings. The end goal is to identify a league format that is competitive and rewards good bowling without discouraging newcomers to the game.

So all I need now are a few volunteers and ideas on how we can eliminate the sandbagger from league bowling. Who wants to join the revolution?